HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON POST-FIRE BAER PHASE 2 ASSESSMENT SUMMARY RELEASED

The Forest Service Santa Fe National Forest (USFS) completed its BAER post-fire Phase 2 assessment of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon burned areas and affected watersheds to determine their response, soil conditions, potential threats, and recommended BAER emergency stabilization measures and actions on National Forest System (NFS) lands. BAER emergency treatments and activities are designed to decreased possible impacts to critical values from the burned areas during rainstorm events such as: life and safety, property, critical natural resources, and cultural resources.

NOTE: Attached below as “Related Information” is a PDF document called “HPCC Phase 2 Post-Fire BAER Assessment Summary”.
 

PHASE III HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON

POST-FIRE BAER SOIL BURN SEVERITY MAP RELEASED 

BAER team specialists completed data gathering and analysis for Phase III of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon (HPCC) burned area on June 29, 2022. The soil burn severity (SBS) map analyzes 40,150 acres for the   Pecos River, and portions of Cow Creek and Gonzales Arroyo-Pecos watersheds. The map and the data display SBS categories of unburned/very low, low, moderate, and high. In the Phase III area, 50% of the acres are either unburned/very low or low SBS, while 16% are moderate SBS and 34% are high SBS.

The land ownership for the Phase III SBS assessment is:

• 39,744 acres on the Santa Fe National Forest (NF), and
•      406 acres of private land.

The BAER assessment team used preliminary remote sensing data based on satellite imagery from June 15 and June 17, 2022. Helicopter reconnaissance photos from June 23, 2022, were also used for the Headwaters Pecos River field verification from earlier phases which was used to further refine SBS thresholds. Field-validated data was only collected on National Forest System (NFS) lands. This information was then used to extrapolate SBS off NFS lands.

The BAER team and the US Geological Survey (USGS) use the SBS map as a tool to estimate post-fire erosion, including the potential for subsequent sediment delivery, stream flows and debris flow.

The BAER assessment team also coordinates with other local and federal agencies such as county and state officials, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service (NWS), and USGS to share information about burned watershed conditions and their predicted response during certain rain events.

The SBS map is an estimate of fire effects on soils and not a measure of direct effects to vegetation. SBS characterizes the soil surface and below-ground impact, whereas effects on vegetation are estimates of mortality based primarily on changes in vegetation canopy. The Rapid Assessment of Vegetation Condition after Wildfire (RAVG) program produces data describing post-fire vegetation conditions on NFS lands. Changes in overhead and understory vegetation canopy are often used as initial indicators of overall burn severity, but do not necessarily coincide with SBS.

Changes in soil cover, water repellency, and soil physical/biological conditions guide the interpretations to determine the severity burn level of the soil. Water repellency can occur naturally in soil and may change as a function of fire. Fire can increase the strength and thickness (or depth) of water-repellent layers in soil, considerably affecting post-fire water runoff and possibly extending time for recovery of the burned area.

Soil burn severity indicators can be found within the Rocky Mountain Research Station’s General Technical Report 243 – Field Guide for Mapping Post-Fire Soil Burn Severity posted at https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr243.pdf.

Low SBS generally occurs where surface organic layers are not completely consumed and are still recognizable. Structural aggregate stability is not changed from its unburned condition, and roots are generally unchanged because the heat pulse below the soil surface was not great enough to consume or char any underlying organics. The ground surface, including any exposed mineral soil, may appear brown or black (lightly charred), and the canopy and understory vegetation will likely appear “green.” Lower risk for accelerated runoff, erosion, flooding, and debris flows is expected within and below these areas compared to moderate and high SBS.

In areas with moderate SBS, up to 80% of the pre-fire ground cover (litter and ground fuels) is consumed. Fine roots may be scorched at or near the surface but are rarely completely consumed over much of the area, large roots are intact. The color of the ash on the surface is generally blackened with possible gray patches. There may be potential for recruitment of effective ground cover from scorched needles or leaves remaining in the canopy that will soon fall to the ground. The prevailing color of the site is often “brown” due to canopy needle and other vegetation scorch. Soil structure is generally unchanged. Where greater amounts of reduced soil cover and increased water repellency occur, increased overland flow of water from precipitation is expected, most notably in locations where the overstory canopy no longer exists.

High SBS occurs where all or nearly all the pre-fire ground cover and surface organic matter (litter, duff, and fine roots) are consumed, and charring may be visible on larger roots. The prevailing color of the site is often “black” due to extensive charring. Bare soil or ash is exposed and susceptible to erosion, and aggregate structure may be less stable. White or gray ash (up to several centimeters in depth) indicates that considerable ground cover or fuels were consumed. Black charred soil or degraded powdery soil can be seen beneath the thick ash layers.  Sometimes very large tree roots are entirely burned extending from a charred stump hole. Soil is often gray, orange, or reddish at the ground surface where large fuels were concentrated and consumed.

Generally, there is 100% tree mortality in high SBS, and tree recovery will take many years without planting. In high SBS, the exposed bare soil is very prone to post-fire impacts. Rain events on damaged soil can cause excessive soil erosion, resulting in higher volumes of sediment delivery to adjacent creeks and rivers. There is increased likelihood for flooding and debris flows. These threats can individually or cumulatively increase the risk to human life and safety, property, infrastructure, and important critical natural and cultural resources.

The Phase III HPCC Fire soil burn severity map can be downloaded at the “Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Post-Fire BAER” InciWeb site (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8104/) as a JPEG or PDF version under the “Maps” tab.

Additional basic information about understanding more about soil burn severity, see: Post-Fire Effects Understanding Soil Burn Severity - InciWeb the Incident Information System (nwcg.gov).

EL EQUIPO BAER DEL SERVICIO FORESTAL COMIENZA LA FASE 3 DE LA EVALUACIÓN DESPUÉS
DE LOS INCENDIOS DE HERMITS PEAK Y CALF CANYON

El equipo de Respuesta de Emergencia en Áreas Quemadas (BAER, en inglés) del Bosque Nacional de Santa Fe (SFNF, en inglés) comenzó la Fase 3 de la evaluación de los terrenos del Sistema Nacional de Bosques (NFS, en inglés) que fueron afectados por los incendios de Hermits Peak y Calf Canyon, del lado este de las montañas Sangre de Cristo.

El análisis preliminar inicial indica que las aguas cabeceras del río Pecos hasta el límite sur del bosque y el Dalton Day Use están propensos a inundaciones posteriores al incendio, lo que puede significar un riesgo para la seguridad pública. Pudieran ocurrir otros flujos elevados a lo largo del río Pecos desde el límite sur del bosque hasta la confluencia de Canon de los Trigos. Se puede esperar la presencia de cenizas, escombros flotantes y un alto nivel de sedimentos. Una gran parte de la cuenca Upper Pecos (Río Mora y Winsor Creek son subcuencas de la cuenca principal Pecos) estuvo expuesta al fuego, lo que aumenta la probabilidad de tener más flujos posteriores al incendio.

Ha sido difícil realizar las evaluaciones posteriores al incendio dentro del Pecos Wilderness debido a su aislamiento, pendientes empinadas e inestables y la lluvia continua. Sin embargo, las estimaciones iniciales por los efectos del fuego en las propiedades del suelo y la respuesta hidrológica posterior se han determinado mediante la revisión de imágenes satelitales no afectadas por las nubes, el comportamiento observado del fuego dentro del área quemada y el reconocimiento aéreo. Análisis adicionales podrán refinar las predicciones de respuesta posterior al incendio.

Debido al tamaño grande de los incendios de Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon y el comportamiento del fuego dentro del perímetro, el equipo BAER dividió el área quemada en fases para evaluar y analizar, comenzando en las áreas más frescas del incendio. Las áreas quemadas que quedan serán evaluadas por el Equipo BAER de la Fase 3 totalizan aproximadamente 40,000 acres.

Un resumen ejecutivo de las cuencas del río Gallinas y el Tecolote Creek de la evaluación Fase 1 del equipo se ha publicado en la página InciWeb del equipo BAER en https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8104/.

La evaluación Fase 2 del equipo equipo BAER cubrió el área norte del incendio, incluyendo la cuenca del río Sapello,  la cuenca Upper Mora y partes de  la cuenca de Embudo Creek. Se está preparando un resumen ejecutivo para la Fase 2 y también se publicará en la página InciWeb del equipo.

Después de un incendio forestal grande, pueden ser necesarias acciones especiales que ofrecen seguridad pública y comunitaria y que protegen críticos recursos naturales y culturales de eventos posteriores al incendio, como la erosión del suelo e inundaciones.  El programa BAER utiliza estudios terrestres y aéreos, imágenes satelitales y modelos informáticos para evaluar las condiciones y recomendar tratamientos de emergencia para proteger los valores en riesgo del NFS de daños mayores.

Los equipos BAER se concentran en las medidas de emergencia que son necesarias para proteger la vida, seguridad y propiedades humanas; así como los recursos naturales y culturales, incluyendo las cuencas afectadas. La evaluación BAER identifica los riesgos inaceptables sobre los terrenos federales ante las amenazas posteriores a un incendio, y ayuda a los administradores de los terrenos a preparar las zonas quemadas ante posibles amenazas, como tormentas. Las zonas quemadas a menudo experimentan un aumento en la erosión del suelo y los escurrimientos ocasionados por las tormentas.

El equipo BAER del Servicio Forestal que evalúa los incendios de Hermits Peak y Calf Canyon está formado por hidrólogos, especialistas en suelos, ingenieros de caminos, biólogos, arqueólogos, especialistas recreativos y especialistas del sistema de información geográfica (GIS, en inglés). El líder del equipo BAER de la Fase 3 es David Moore, un especialista de suelos forestales del Bosque Nacional Prescott. Micah Kiesow es el Coordinador de BAER del SFNF y puede brindar asistencia adicional relacionada con BAER.

Utilizando su evaluación preliminar, el equipo BAER planea algunas verificaciones de campo para producir un mapa de la severidad de la quemadura del suelo de Fase 3, que proporciona información de referencia sobre las condiciones cambiantes de las cuencas y los posibles impactos del incendio para las cuencas del incendio. El informe de evaluación de la Fase 3 del equipo BAER incluirá su evaluación final, análisis, hallazgos, tratamientos y acciones de estabilización de emergencia que recomienda.

Asimismo, el equipo BAER coordinará y compartirá la información de su evaluación con otras agencias federales, incluyendo el Servicio de Conservación de Recursos Naturales (NRCS, en inglés), el Servicio Nacional de Meteorología (NWS, en inglés) y el Servicio Geológico (USGS) del Departamento del Interior de los Estados Unidos; así como con agencias estatales y condados/municipalidades locales que trabajen con dueños de propiedades privadas, propietarios de terrenos y negocios cercanos y en la parte baja del río para que se preparen ante las posibles inundaciones y el flujo de escombros como resultado del incendio. El NRCS una agencia federal que tiene responsabilidad sobre terrenos privados, tanto dentro como en las zonas quemadas y cercanas al río, luego de un incendio.

Los hogares o negocios que puedan ser afectados por una inundación proveniente de terrenos federales tras un incendio forestal pueden calificar para ser cubiertos por el Programa Nacional de Seguros contra Inundaciones (NFIP, en inglés).  La información sobre el NFIP está disponible a través de la FEMA en www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program, o www.floodsmart.gov/wildfires. Podrá encontrar más información sobre preparación contra inundaciones en www.ready.gov/floods at www.floodsmart.gov/.

FOREST SERVICE BAER TEAM BEGINS PHASE 3

POST-FIRE ASSESSMENT OF HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON FIRES

The Santa Fe National Forest (SFNF) Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team has begun its Phase 3 assessment of National Forest System (NFS) lands impacted by the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fires on the east side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains

Initial preliminary analysis suggests the headwaters of the Pecos River to the Dalton Day Use/southern forest boundary are susceptible to post-fire flooding that may pose a risk to public safety. Additional elevated flows along the Pecos River may occur from the southern forest boundary to the confluence of Canon de los Trigos. Presence of ash, floating debris and high levels of sediment transport can be expected. A large portion of the Upper Pecos Watershed (Rio Mora and Winsor Creek are sub-watersheds of the greater Pecos Watershed) was exposed to fire which increases the likelihood of increased post-fire flows. 

Post-fire assessments within the Pecos Wilderness have been a challenge due to its remoteness, steep unstable slopes, and ongoing rain activity. However, initial estimates of fire impacts to soil properties and subsequent hydrologic response have been ascertained by reviewing satellite imagery not impacted by cloud cover, observed fire behavior within the burned area, and aerial reconnaissance. Further ongoing analysis will be able to refine post-fire response predictions.

Due to the large size of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fires and fire behavior within the perimeter, the BAER team divided the burned area into phases for assessment and analysis, beginning in the cooler areas of the fire. The remaining burned areas to be assessed by the Phase 3 BAER team total approximately 40,000 acres.

An executive summary of the team’s Phase 1 assessment of the Headwaters Gallinas River and Tecolote Creek watersheds has been posted to the BAER team’s InciWeb page at https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8104/.

The team’s Phase 2 BAER assessment covered the northern area of the fire, including the Sapello River Watershed, Upper Mora Watershed and portions of Embudo Creek Watershed. An executive summary for Phase 2 is being prepared and will also be posted on the team’s InciWeb page.

After a large wildfire, special actions may be necessary to provide for public and community safety and protect critical natural and cultural resources from post-fire events like soil erosion and flooding. The BAER program uses ground and aerial surveys, satellite imagery and computer models to evaluate conditions and recommend emergency treatments to protect NFS values at risk from further damage.

BAER teams focus on emergency actions necessary to protect human life and safety, property, and natural and cultural resources, including affected watersheds. BAER assessments identify unacceptable risks on federal lands from post-fire threats and help land managers prepare burned areas for potential threats from rainstorms. Burned areas often experience increased soil erosion and runoff from rainstorms.

The Forest Service BAER team assessing the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fires consists of hydrologists, soil scientists, road engineers, biologists, archaeologists, recreation specialists, and geographic information system (GIS) specialists. The Phase 3 BAER team leader is David Moore, a Forest Soil Scientist from the Prescott National Forest. Micah Kiesow is the SFNF BAER Coordinator and can provide additional BAER related assistance.

Using its preliminary assessment, the BAER team plans some field verification to produce a Phase 3 soil burn severity map, which provides baseline information on changed watershed conditions and potential watershed impacts from the fire. The BAER team’s Phase 3 assessment report will include its final assessment, analysis, findings, and recommended emergency stabilization treatments and actions.

The BAER team continues to coordinate and share information from its assessment with other federal agencies, including the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service (NWS) and US Geological Survey (USGS) as well as state agencies and local counties and municipalities who work with adjacent and downstream private homeowners, landowners, and businesses to prepare for potential post-fire flooding and debris flow impacts. NRCS is a federal agency that has post-fire responsibilities on private lands both within and downstream of burned areas.

Homes or businesses that could be impacted by flooding from federal land that result from wildfires may be eligible for flood insurance coverage from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).  Information about NFIP is available through FEMA at www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program, or www.floodsmart.gov/wildfires. Other flood preparedness information is available at www.ready.gov/floods at www.floodsmart.gov/.

The State of New Mexico

US Department of Homeland Security

FEMA

June 24, 2022
DR-4652- NM PSA 0014

FEMA News Desk: 940-898-5454

FEMA-R6-NewsDesk@fema.dhs.gov

PSA

Prepare for Possible Flash Flooding

NWS-ALBUQUERQUE: WEATHER NOTICE—SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

Please visit the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque “Weather Story” for additional urgent weather information:

http://www.weather.gov/images/abq/graphicast/image_full3.gif?40fbba9e1913367f25fb52d6bd5ee2fd?foo=0.8541123805502961

The full NWS forecast information is available from at this NWS internet link:

Albuquerque, NM (weather.gov)

HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON POST-FIRE BAER PHASE 1 ASSESSMENT SUMMARY RELEASED

The Forest Service Santa Fe National Forest (USFS) completed its BAER post-fire Phase 1 assessment of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon burned areas and affected watersheds to determine their response, soil conditions, potential threats, and recommended BAER emergency stabilization measures and actions on National Forest System (NFS) lands. BAER emergency treatments and activities are designed to decreased possible impacts to critical values from the burned areas during rainstorm events such as: life and safety, property, critical natural resources, and cultural resources.

NOTE: Attached below as “Related Information” is a PDF document called “HPCC Phase 1 Post-Fire BAER Assessment Summary”.
 

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in rain and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during rain events. Be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website:  www.weather.gov/abq/.

USGS Models Show High-Level Debris-Flow Hazards for Phase II

Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Burned Area

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events. Be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website:  www.weather.gov/abq/.

The Forest Service (USFS) Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) assessment team coordinated early with US Geological Survey (USGS) staff during its evaluation of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fire burned area to strategically assess potential post-fire impacts to the watersheds and predicted debris flow response during damaging storm events.

The USGS debris flow assessment report indicates a high-level debris flow hazard for most of the area assessed in Phase II of the BAER assessment of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon fire. Most stream reaches and small drainage basins have a greater than 60% likelihood of debris flow occurrence at a modest rainfall intensity of 24 mm/h.  Debris flow likelihood exceeds 80% in a few drainage basins at this 24 mm/h rainfall intensity.  A rainfall intensity of 24millimeters/hour equals .9inches/hour.

These high to very high hazard areas are widespread in the Phase II assessment area, including above County Road A023 near the Rincon Mountains, Vigil Canyon, some sections of New Mexico Highway 276, County Road C001 near Fragoso Ridge, and County Roads A3a and A4a in the southern portion of the assessed area.  There are numerous other high hazard areas not mentioned in this summary.

The USGS model predictions represent estimates based on free, readily available data.  Certain local conditions not represented by the input data may significantly impact site-specific debris flow hazard.  In addition, USGS models only consider debris flows.

Flooding, including sediment-laden flash floods, is not considered in the model.  Please visit: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/scientific-background?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects for limitations of the modeling approach. 

The online interactive map is posted at https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/detail.php?objectid=419.

Click on the button at the top right corner of the map to show different components of the hazard assessments.  Zoom in if the map does not immediately load.

Visit the following link for Scientific Background and more information on how the predictions are calculated:

National Weather Service Reminder that Wildfire Burn Scars are a Flood Risk
 

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