NWS Albuquerque NM – Weekly Weather Briefing Dashboard

LINK TO DASHBOARD:

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=30c322f65d99425095089415dd739104

National Weather Service (NWS)—Albuquerque, NM

Resources

·       NWS Albuquerque Webpage: www.weather.gov/abq

·       NWS Albuquerque Winter Weather: https://www.weather.gov/abq/winter

·       Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov

·       Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location):  http://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=abq&TypeDefault=graphical

·       NWS ABQ Decision Support Dashboard: ArcGIS Online Dashboard 

·       NWS Albuquerque Social Media: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube

DHS Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Provides Disaster Assistance for Wildfire Recovery Efforts

President Biden has approved a New Mexico disaster declaration for Colfax, Lincoln, Mora, San Miguel, and Valencia counties (4652 | FEMA.gov).

For more information, see the FEMA Flyers (ENGLISH & SPANISH) below.

To apply for assistance and start your recovery process, go to https://www.disasterassistance.gov. 

                    

After Fire Flooding and Recovery Resources Guide for NM Communities

After Wildfire New Mexico Guide for Communities: https://www.afterwildfirenm.org/ and also attached below as a PDF document under Related Information.

This guide is an interagency response to fire affected communities’ requests for a one-stop-shop for information to help them respond to wildfires.

In recent years, New Mexico experienced multiple catastrophic wildfires, many followed by intense flooding. In the wake of these events, communities had to navigate a complex system of state and federal response authorities.

This guide was created to help communities organize and respond to wildfire and subsequent flooding.

The guide contains safety information, flood information, state and federal agency resources and contacts for assistance, ways to mobilize your community, and financial and funding tips for communities and families.

It is intended to provide useful guidance through a difficult time, and to start you and your community on the road to recovery. If you are reading this before a wildfire occurs, use it to help you plan ahead. 

BAER INFORMATION: FOR YOUR SAFETY – POTENTIAL FLOOD HAZARDS

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AND THEIR PROPERTY FROM POTENTIAL FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS:

§  Communities need to monitor local weather reports and public safety bulletins, local road closures, emergency notifications, weather alerts, follow local county and city advisories, and act accordingly.

§  Use a “weather radio” or smart phone “weather app” that monitors “all hazards” alerts issued by the NOAA-National Weather Service (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/).

§  Prepare for rainstorms by being prepared to evacuate if county or city emergency officials determine that flooding and debris flows are expected which could pose an increased threat to human life, safety, and property. Practice evacuations before real events occur.

§  Know and be alert to environmental signs of dangerous weather conditions and be prepared to take action that can save lives.

§  Understand that all drainages within and downstream of the burned area can produce flash flooding.

§  Flash floods can occur even though it is not raining where you are it may be raining hard further up-stream.

§  If you find yourself in a flood, climb to safety (seek higher ground).

§  Even if the water appears shallow enough to cross, don’t try it by vehicle or foot. Water hides dips in the road – worse yet, there may be no road left under the water as flooding can scour away the entire road surface and ground beneath the road. 

NOTE: See this information as a poster and flyer attached as PDF documents (ENGLISH & SPANISH) below at related information.

BAER BROCHURE:

Your Guide to Flood Preparation

Preparing for Flood Waters after Wildfires

The emergency doesn’t end when the smoke clears!

Wildfires can significantly change the landscape, presenting risk of debris-flows and flooding.  Change in vegetation, combined with steep slopes and intense rainfall, increase the risk of flash flooding in the burned area. Lands downstream of the burned area are also subject to increased flooding.

Until the burned area begins to recover, little will stop the waters from coming down the canyons. While multi-agency efforts are being taken to reduce the risks to life and property downstream of the fire, residents in the area should develop individual plans to protect themselves and their property.

Now is the time to prepare for post-fire flooding!

NOTE: See this brochure-pamphlet attached as a foldable PDF document (ENGLISH & SPANISH) below at related information.   

New Mexico—Southwest Region

Preparing for Rain After Wildfires

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: https://www.weather.gov/abq/.

POST-FIRE WATERSHED CONDITIONS—KEY MESSAGES

While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires cause damage that requires special efforts to prevent problems afterwards.

Summer monsoon thunderstorms and winter rain events in the southwest mountains can result in high water runoff and flooding.

Wildfire increases the potential for flooding, post-fire soil erosion and debris flows that could impact campgrounds, fishing areas, homes, structures, roads, and other infrastructure within, adjacent to, and downstream from the burned areas.

Post-fire, watershed conditions will naturally receive and transport water and sediment differently than during pre-fire conditions.

The public and communities adjacent to and downstream from the wildfire areas should expect increased flooding and debris transport during less than average rain events.

SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE AFTER THE FIRE IS OUT

The potential for increased water runoff and debris flows are not just a one-year concern.

We recognize the threat potential of flash floods and debris flows may exist for the next several years, depending on the intensity of these storms.

For life and safety concerns, burned area public land closures are sometimes implemented prior to forecast rain events until the burned area fully recovers.

Residents and visitors should remain alert to weather events and plan ahead when travelling along roads within and downstream from the burned areas.

ASSESSING BURNED WATERSHEDS RESPONSE

Forest Service Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams work with each of the national forests, to assess the condition of the watersheds on National Forest System (NFS) lands burned by wildfires.

BAER assessment teams identify potential emergency threats to BAER critical values that may be considered at-risk on federal lands such as:

§  Human life and safety.

§  NFS property, such as buildings, water systems and infrastructure, utility systems, road and trail prisms.

§  Critical natural resources such as water, soil productivity and hydrologic function, areas where invasive species or noxious weeds may impact native or naturalized communities and may include critical habitat or suitable occupied habitat for federally listed threatened or endangered species.

§  Critical cultural and heritage resources such as pre-historic and historic properties and sites.

BAER assessment teams recommend emergency stabilization response actions that are implemented on federal land to reduce potential post-fire threats.

PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AND DEBRIS-FLOWS FROM WILDFIRE BURNED AREAS

For values and resources potentially impacted off federal lands, one of the most effective BAER strategies is interagency coordination with local cooperators who assist affected businesses, homes, and landowners with preparing for rain events.

While multi-agency efforts are being taken to reduce the risks to life and safety adjacent to and downstream from the burned areas, nearby residents should develop individual plans to protect themselves and their property.

The USDA Forest Service and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) work together and coordinate with other federal, state and local agencies, and counties that assist private landowners in preparing for increased water run-off and potential flooding impacts.

NRCS and local sponsors prepare damage survey reports for eligible sites on private lands adjacent to and downstream from affected areas.  NRCS uses these reports, along with the Forest Service BAER team’s assessment report, to develop emergency measures to reduce the impacts from potential increased water and debris flows, and assist local sponsors to implement recommended emergency measures through its Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) Program: (www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb1045263.pdf).

All EWP Program–Recovery projects begin with a local sponsor or legal subdivision of state or tribal government. Eligible sponsors include cities, counties, towns, conservation districts, or any federally recognized Native American tribe or tribal organization. Interested public and private landowners can apply for EWP Program–Recovery assistance through one of those sponsors. For more information on NRCS Disaster Assistance Programs: Emergency Watershed Protection Program | NRCS New Mexico (usda.gov).

The following links provide information and references for state and local county offices of emergency management promote preparedness through its emergency services programs to assist the public to prepare for, respond appropriately to, and quickly recover from natural emergencies that may impact county residents and visitors:

After Fire: Toolkit for the Southwest (postfiresw.info)

After Wildfire: A Guide for New Mexico Communities

New Mexico Fire Information: After a Wildfire

Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management - Welcome to NewMexico.gov (nm.gov)

New Mexico Current Road Conditions

NM Counties Wildfire Risk Reduction Program

New Mexico County Office of Emergency Services

New Mexico Counties, NM County List - USA (officialusa.com)

Homes or businesses that could be impacted by flooding from federal land that resulted from wildfires may be eligible for flood insurance coverage from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).  Information about NFIP is available through FEMA at www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program, or FEMA Wildfire Increases Flood Risk. Other flood preparedness information is available at www.ready.gov/floods and www.floodsmart.gov/.

LINKS TO ADDITIONAL RESOURCES AND WEBSITES

NRCS—New Mexico

NRCS Emergency Watershed Protection Recovery Assistance

USDA Fire Recovery Assistance

FEMA Flood Insurance Program

FEMA Wildfire Increases Flood Risk

FEMA Know Your Post-Wildfire Flooding Risk

FEMA Flood After Fire—Fact Sheet

Recovering from Wildfire-Damage Assessments

After the Wildfire ToolKit

Flood Emergency Preparedness

Be Ready & Prepare for Emergencies

NWS Weather Information—Albuquerque NM

NWS-Albuquerque Facebook

NWS Post-Wildfire Flash Flood-Debris Flow Guide

NWS-North American Monsoon Awareness

NWS-North American Monsoon Flash Floods

NOAA Flood After Fire-Know Your Risk

After the Flames Resources

NOTE: See this information BAER brief attached as a PDF document (ENGLISH & SPANISH) below at Related Information.

Southwest Region – New Mexico

Post-Fire Resources for Private Property Owners

POST-FIRE WATERSHED CONDITIONS—KEY MESSAGES

While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires cause damage that requires special efforts to prevent problems afterwards.

Summer monsoon thunderstorms and winter rain events in the southwest mountains can result in high water runoff and flooding.

Wildfire increases the potential for flooding, post-fire soil erosion and debris flows that could impact campgrounds, fishing areas, homes, structures, roads, and other infrastructure within, adjacent to, and downstream from the burned areas.

Post-fire, watershed conditions will naturally receive and transport water and sediment differently than during pre-fire conditions.

The public and communities adjacent to and downstream from the wildfire areas should expect increased flooding and debris transport during less than average rain events.

SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE AFTER THE FIRE IS OUT

The potential for increased water runoff and debris flows are not just a one-year concern.

We recognize the threat potential of flash floods and debris flows may exist for the next several years, depending on the intensity of these storms.

For life and safety concerns, burned area public land closures are sometimes implemented prior to forecast rain events until the burned area fully recovers.

Residents and visitors should remain alert to weather events and plan ahead when travelling along roads within and downstream from the burned areas.

ASSESSING BURNED WATERSHEDS RESPONSE

Forest Service Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams work with each of the national forests, to assess the condition of the watersheds on National Forest System (NFS) lands burned by wildfires.

BAER assessment teams identify potential emergency threats to BAER critical values that may be considered at-risk on federal lands such as:

§  Human life and safety.

§  NFS property, such as buildings, water systems and infrastructure, utility systems, road and trail prisms.

§  Critical natural resources such as water, soil productivity and hydrologic function, areas where invasive species or noxious weeds may impact native or naturalized communities and may include critical habitat or suitable occupied habitat for federally listed threatened or endangered species.

§  Critical cultural and heritage resources such as pre-historic and historic properties and sites.

BAER assessment teams recommend emergency stabilization response actions that are implemented on federal land to reduce potential post-fire threats.

ASSISTANCE FOR PRIVATE LAND AND HOMEOWNERS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM FROM BURNED AREAS

For values and resources potentially impacted off federal lands, one of the most effective BAER strategies is interagency coordination with local cooperators who assist affected businesses, homes, and landowners with preparing for rain events. 

While multi-agency efforts are being taken to reduce the risks to life and safety adjacent to and downstream from the burned areas, nearby residents should develop individual plans to protect themselves and their property. 

The USDA Forest Service and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) work together and coordinate with other federal, state and local agencies, and counties that assist private landowners in preparing for increased water run-off and potential flooding impacts.

NRCS and local sponsors prepare damage survey reports for eligible sites on private lands adjacent to and downstream from affected areas.  NRCS uses these reports, along with the Forest Service BAER team’s assessment report, to develop emergency measures to reduce the impacts from potential increased water and debris flows, and assist local sponsors to implement recommended emergency measures through its Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) Program: (www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb1045263.pdf).

All EWP Program–Recovery projects begin with a local sponsor or legal subdivision of state or tribal government. Eligible sponsors include cities, counties, towns, conservation districts, or any federally-recognized Native American tribe or tribal organization. Interested public and private landowners can apply for EWP Program–Recovery assistance through one of those sponsors. For more information on NRCS Disaster Assistance Programs: Emergency Watershed Protection Program | NRCS New Mexico (usda.gov).

The following links provide information and references for state and local county offices of emergency management promote preparedness through its emergency services programs to assist the public to prepare for, respond appropriately to, and quickly recover from natural emergencies that may impact county residents and visitors:

After Fire: Toolkit for the Southwest (postfiresw.info)

After Wildfire: A Guide for New Mexico Communities

New Mexico Fire Information: After a Wildfire

Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management - Welcome to NewMexico.gov (nm.gov)

New Mexico Current Road Conditions

NM Counties Wildfire Risk Reduction Program

New Mexico County Office of Emergency Services

New Mexico Counties, NM County List - USA (officialusa.com)

Homes or businesses that could be impacted by flooding from federal land that resulted from wildfires may be eligible for flood insurance coverage from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).  Information about NFIP is available through FEMA at www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program, or FEMA Wildfire Increases Flood Risk. Other flood preparedness information is available at www.ready.gov/floods and www.floodsmart.gov/.

LINKS TO ADDITIONAL RESOURCES AND WEBSITES

NRCS Emergency Watershed Protection Recovery Assistance

USDA Fire Recovery Assistance

FEMA Flood Insurance Program

FEMA Wildfire Increases Flood Risk

FEMA Flood After Fire—Fact Sheet

Recovering from Wildfire-Damage Assessments

After Disaster Guidebook Template - Emergency Management - CSU Extension (colostate.edu)

Boulder-County-After-the-Disaster-Guidebook-CSU-Extension-V4.pdf (colostate.edu)

Flood Emergency Preparedness

Be Ready & Prepare for Emergencies

NWS Weather Information—Albuquerque NM

NWS-Albuquerque Facebook

NWS Post-Wildfire Flash Flood-Debris Flow Guide

MCBRIDE POST-FIRE BAER ASSESSMENT SUMMARY RELEASED

Ash Devil-Twister in McBride Burned Area

The Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest has released a summary of its post-fire assessment for emergency stabilization measures and actions on National Forest System (NFS) lands burned by the McBride Fire. The emergency treatments and activities are designed to decrease possible impacts to critical values from the burned area such as: life and safety, property, critical natural resources, and cultural resources.

The McBride Fire started on April 12, 2022, afternoon near the Warrior and Gavilan Canyon roads in the Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico. The fire quickly spread by high wind events during extreme dry conditions into neighboring residential areas and continued to move northeast burning onto the Lincoln National Forest. There were 2 confirmed fatalities and over 200 homes have been lost.

The fire burned in grassland, Juniper grassland, Pinyon-Juniper woodland, Interior Chaparral, mixed Conifer and Ponderosa Pine forest. Of the 6,246 acres burned, 4,551 acres were National Forest System (NFS) lands, 370 were state land, and 1,325 acres were private lands.

The Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) assessment team began their field surveys on April 26, 2022. The team consisted of specialists in soils, hydrology, wildlife, biology, roads, recreation, botany, weeds, cultural resources, geographic information systems (GIS), and public information officers (PIOs).

The BAER assessment team’s emergency stabilization objectives for the McBride burned area are to protect, mitigate and reduce the potential for identified post-fire threats, including potential increased soil erosion/sediment yield and water runoff on steep slopes, to: 1) downstream human life and safety, and property; 2) Forest Service infrastructure and investments such as roads; 3) critical natural resources and cultural resources; and 4) native and naturalized plant communities from new noxious weed infestations.

In addition to Forest Service efforts to reduce the threats to National Forest resources, the BAER team and the Lincoln National Forest warn users of roads and trails within and below the burned area of potential hazards during and following rainstorm events.

The BAER team and Lincoln National Forest continues to communicate and coordinate with other agencies such as the National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), NOAA National Weather Service, state agencies, and counties to assist private entities and communities including private residents, domestic water suppliers and public utilities to achieve post-fire recovery objectives.

The BAER team’s assessment report which includes the BAER assessment team’s analysis of the burned areas within the McBride and recommended emergency treatments, has been reviewed by the Lincoln National Forest Supervisor and submitted to the Southwest Region (Region 3) Regional Forester for review, approval and funding for the recommended BAER emergency treatments and actions.

A copy of the McBride post-fire BAER assessment executive summary can be accessed on the McBride Post-Fire BAER InciWeb in this announcement article as a linked PDF document at the bottom of the InciWeb page under the Related Information Header.

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: https://www.weather.gov/abq/.

USGS Post-Fire Debris-Flow Assessment Maps Completed for McBride Fire
 

The McBride Post-Fire Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) assessment team coordinated with the US Geological Survey (USGS) during its evaluation of the burned area to assess potential post-fire hazards, including debris flows.

USGS utilized the BAER team’s soil burn severity (SBS) map to model potential debris flow hazards within the burned area. The data estimates debris-flow likelihood, volume, combined hazard, and rainfall thresholds and are presented in the debris flow map (see below). The combined relative hazard metric is a combination of the likelihood of debris flow (in %) and potential volume of debris flow (in m3).

One of the maps that USGS developed depicts the likelihood of debris-flow hazard generation and estimates of flow magnitude in locations where debris flows initiate. The models do not predict downstream impacts, potential debris-flow runout paths, or the spatial extent of debris-flow or flood inundation. The other two maps show estimated intensity volumes of debris-flows, and the estimated probability/likelihood of debris-flows.

This information is extremely important to inform our safety awareness of the burned areas, especially where there may be an increased risk of hillslope erosion, flooding sediment delivery to streams, and a higher probability of debris flows – all of which are potential risks to human life, safety, and property.

For information on what to do if you live in a recently-burned area where debris flows are possible, and there is a rainstorm - before, during, and after, download the National Weather Service Post Wildfire Flash Flood and Debris Flow Guide (PDF 7.2 MB).

For additional information about the USGS emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards, go to: Emergency Assessment of Post-Fire Debris-Flow Hazards (usgs.gov).

Additional scientific information from USGS about its debris-flow hazard report and analysis for the McBride Fire:

USGS models estimate a low level debris-flow hazard for most of the area burned by the McBride fire. Most stream reaches and small drainage basins have a less than 20% likelihood of debris-flow occurrence at the modeled rainfall intensity. A few small catchments above Gavilan Canyon Road in the southwestern portion of the burn area have a 20-40% likelihood of producing debris flows. Most of the burn area requires rainfall rates between greater than 36 mm/h to exceed a 50% likelihood of debris-flow occurrence. The slightly higher hazard areas above Gavilan Canyon require rainfall rates between 32 and 36 mm/h to exceed a 50% likelihood of debris flows.  The modeled watersheds are estimated to produce volumes 3 or between 1,000-10,000 m3, resulting in a low combined hazard for most of the burn area.  A few small watersheds in Gavilan Canyon have a moderate combined hazard. The year 1 and 2 model-estimated rainfall thresholds (segment-scale) and corresponding return intervals are as follows: 

   YEAR 1:

     15-minute: 64 mm/h, or 0.65 inches in 15 minutes, RI = 1.4 years

     30-minute: 47 mm/h, or 0.95 inches in 30 minutes, RI = 1.8 years

     60-minute: 45 mm/h, or 1.80 inches in 60 minutes, RI = 8.1 years

 

   YEAR 2:

     15-minute: 83 mm/h, or 0.80 inches in 15 minutes, RI = 3.0 years

     30-minute: 61 mm/h, or 1.20 inches in 30 minutes, RI = 4.0 years

     60-minute: 61 mm/h, or 2.40 inches in 60 minutes, RI = 31.3 years

The model predictions represent estimates based on free, readily available data.  Certain local conditions not represented by the input data may significantly impact site-specific debris-flow hazard.  In addition, USGS models only consider debris flows, floods (including sediment-laden flash-floods) are not considered in the model.  For additional information, visit the USGS site to familiarize yourselves with the other limitations of the modeling approach. 
 
 

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: www.weather.gov/abq/.

MCBRIDE POST-FIRE BAER SOIL BURN SEVERITY MAP RELEASED

   

USDA Forest Service Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a multi-disciplinary team that assesses post-fire impacts on federal lands following significant wildfires. The role of the assessment team is to characterize fire effects within the burned area to identify imminent post-fire threats to human life, safety, property, infrastructure, and critical natural and cultural resources on NFS lands and recommend emergency response actions designed to mitigate identified risks.

The McBride BAER assessment team coordinated early with other local and federal agencies such as county and state officials, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service (NWS), and USDOI Geological Service (USGS) to share information about burned watershed conditions and their predicted response during certain rain events.

After the team’s assessment of the McBride burned area, Lincoln National Forest land managers will establish a separate BAER Implementation team to implement the protective and stabilization treatments that have been approved by the Forest Service Regional and National offices.

The team began their assessment immediately after the fire threat passed. Their focus was on direct effects to the burned landscape caused by the fire, rather than from fire suppression activities which are the responsibility of the Incident Management Team assigned to the fire. Post-fire effects such as loss of vegetation and change in soil stability commonly increase the likelihood of threats that include accelerated soil erosion, increased sediment delivery, flooding and debris flows.

BAER specialists recently completed their field data evaluation to produce the Soil Burn Severity (SBS) map for the approximately 6,242-acre McBride Fire (number of acres analyzed by the BAER team on April 27, 2022—total number of acres may have changed since that date). The map and the data delineate unburned/very low, low, moderate, and high SBS categories.  The BAER team assessing the McBride Fire determined that only 22 acres were identified as having high SBS conditions for only about less than 1% of the total burned area. Across the remaining McBride burned area, approximately 78% of the fire is either unburned/very low and/or low SBS, while 22% sustained a moderate SBS.

It is important to note the SBS map product is an estimate of fire effects on soils and not direct effects to vegetation. SBS characterizes the soil surface and below-ground impact, whereas effects on vegetation are estimates of mortality based primarily on changes in vegetation canopy. Changes in overhead and understory vegetation canopy are often used as initial indicators of overall burn severity, but do not necessarily coincide with SBS.

Changes in soil cover, water repellency, and soil physical/biological conditions guide the interpretations to determine the severity burn level of the soil. Water repellency can occur naturally in soils and it changes as a function of fire. It is frequently discussed as a post-fire effect. Fire can increase the strength and thickness (or depth) of water repellent layers in soil, considerably affecting post-fire water runoff and possibly extending time for recovery of the burned area.

Low SBS occurs from partial consumption of fine fuels where broken limbs, leaves and ground cover are relatively unchanged and intact on the soil surface. Burning at the soil surface was short in time and discontinuous, leaving root systems and soil physical and biological conditions undamaged. Based on the ecological community, burned vegetation will generally recover to pre-fire conditions within 1-to-2 years. Low SBS generally indicates a low to very low risk. Lower risk for accelerated runoff, erosion, flooding, and debris flows within and below these areas compared to moderate and high SBS areas.

Moderate SBS occurs where 50 to 80 percent of pre-fire soil cover (litter and ground fuels) was consumed by fire. Charring of the mineral soil is patchy or sporadic and plant roots within the soil may be scorched but are rarely consumed. Water repellency is often found at the surface, sometimes increasing in strength and depth which reduces the ability of precipitation to infiltrate the soil surface. The extent of scorched leaves on trees and shrubs is limited to riparian areas and some high elevation hillslopes. Shrub canopy removed by fire in moderate and high SBS areas varies and can reflect a range in mortality from high to low, which is why a closer look at the ground is required to determine the SBS level. Unburned leaves from fire-damaged or killed trees will provide ground cover to replace the organic soil cover that was consumed by the fire. Where greater amounts of reduced soil cover and increased water repellency occur, increased overland flow of water from precipitation is expected, most notably in locations where the overstory canopy no longer exists. Canopy only exists in several of the low and moderate SBS mainstem channel riparian areas. Recovery of burned understory vegetation in these areas can take 3-to-5 years thereby. increasing the short-term potential for post-fire threats.

For the McBride burned area, even though a minimal of 22 acres were identified by the BAER team to be high SBS, this is typically the result of high-fire severity that corresponds with longer burning time at the soil surface. As a result of the high, longer duration heat nearly all the pre-fire soil cover and ground fuels have been consumed. The surface mineral soil structure can be reduced to powder (single grain) sometimes several inches thick with a continuous cover of white or gray ash. The fine and small roots of shrubs and grasses tend to be completely consumed. Water repellency does not exist at the surface because the organic materials have been vaporized and forced downward into pore spaces and voids between soil particles below the damaged soil surface.

For high SBS areas, soil water repellency (SWR) layers tend to be stronger, thicker and occur deeper compared to moderate SBS. Fire induced SWR is a natural process where waxes are released from vegetation via the burning process. The wax can coat soil particles thus preventing water infiltration. Soils throughout the McBride Fire perimeter show a variable of very little moderate to weak strength patterns of water repellent soils post-fire.

Fire-adapted shrubs and vegetation such as bear clover, manzanita, and deer brush can sprout back within 2-to-3 years because of intact roots systems. However, seed sources for some grass species are consumed in High SBS which may take five or more years to re-establish to pre-fire conditions. Generally, there is 100% tree mortality in High SBS, and tree recovery will take many years without planting. In High SBS, the exposed bare soil is very prone to post-fire impacts. The damaged soil is very easily detached with rain events causing excessive soil erosion, resulting in higher volumes of sediment delivery to adjacent creeks and rivers. There is increased likelihood for flooding and debris flows. These threats can individually or cumulatively increase the risk to human life and safety, property, infrastructure, and important critical natural and cultural resources.

The McBride BAER assessment team used preliminary remote sensing imagery with field-validated soils data to produce the final SBS map. The BAER team and the US Geological Survey (USGS) both use the SBS map as an analysis tool to estimate post-fire erosion with subsequent sediment delivery, stream flows and debris flow probabilities.

The McBride Fire soil burn severity map can be downloaded at the “McBride Post-Fire BAER” InciWeb site (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8080/) as a JPEG or PDF version under the “Maps” tab.

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: https://www.weather.gov/abq/.