California Valley fire 25 contained as crews stop its forward progress
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Update
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Hackberry Fire is now 90% contained and crews will continue mop up in the next operational period.
Bush Post Fire Flooding Public Safety Closure in Effect 73120
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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREST SERVICETONTO NATIONAL FOREST
GLOBE, TONTO BASIN AND MESA RANGER DISTRICTS
Bush Post Fire Flooding Public Safety Closure Order
PROHIBITIONS
Pursuant to 16 U.S.C. § 551 and 36 C.F.R. § 261.50(a), the following acts are prohibited within the area described in this Order (the “Restricted Area”) and as depicted on the attached map, hereby incorporated into this Order as Exhibit A, all within the Tonto National Forest, Maricopa and Gila Counties, Arizona.
1. Going into or being upon the Restricted Area. 36 C.F.R.§261.53(e).
EXEMPTIONS
Pursuant to 36 CFR § 261.50 (e), the following persons are exempt from this order: 1. Persons with a written Forest Service authorization specifically exempting them from the effect of this Order. 2. Any Federal, State, or local officer, or member of any organized rescue or firefighting resource in the performance of an official duty.
RESTRICTED AREA
All National Forest System lands contained within the following area except Cholla Campground and boat launch, and NFSR 491 and the transfer station approximately .3 miles west of SR 188, and Vineyard Picnic Site. Beginning at the intersection of SR 87 and SR 188, proceeding southeast along the south side of SR 188 for approximately 3 miles to the intersection with National Forest System Road (NFSR) 184, proceeding north along the east side of NSR 184 until the intersection with FR 1387, then southeast along the south side of FR1387 until the intersection with Tonto Creek, then proceeding south along the east side of Tonto Creek and outside the boundaries of any private property until the inflow to Roosevelt Lake, then along the southern shoreline of the Lake to the north side of Theodore Roosevelt Dam, then following the north shoreline of the Salt River, Apache, Canyon and Saguaro Lakes to the Saguaro Del Norte Recreation Site, then along the north and west side of the recreation sit to the upper exit road to Bush Hwy, then north along east side of the Bush Highway until the intersection with SR 87, then southwest along the north side of SR87 until the junction with Fort McDowell Indian Reservation boundary, then north along the reservation boundary NFSR1096, then east and north along the north and west side of NFSR1096 to the intersection with NFSR160, then following the north side of NFSR 160 to the junction with Sycamore Creek, then along the west side of the creek until the junction with NFSR3456, then east along the north side of 3456 until the junction with SR 87, then north along the west side of SR 87 to the starting point at the intersection with AZ state Hwy 188.
Note: The Tonto Creek crossing and roads at NFSR 71, (NFSR (Bar X Road) and NFSR 60 (A Cross Road) are open unless closed by Gila County.
PURPOSE
The purpose of this Order is to close the Restricted Area for the protection of public health and safety during the time that the area is at increased risk of post-fire flood events that could cause significant injury or death.
IMPLEMENTATION
1. This Order will be in effect at 0600 on July 31, 2020 and shall remain in effect until March 15, 2021 or until rescinded, whichever occurs first.
2. A map identifying the Restricted Area is attached and made part of this Order as Exhibit A.
3. Any violation of this prohibition is punishable as a Class B misdemeanor by a fine of not more than $5,000 for individuals or $10,000 for organizations, or by imprisonment for not more than six (6) months, or both (see16 U.S.C.551, 18 U.S.C.3571(b)(6), 18 U.S.C.3581(b)(7)).
4. Further information regarding this Order may be obtained at the Tonto National Forest Supervisor’s Office in Phoenix, Arizona, (602) 225-5200, or at Mesa Ranger District Office,
480- 610-3300. Or at Tonto Basin RD office 602-225-5395
BAER Cooperators Meeting Summary July 9 2020
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BAER Cooperators Meeting Summary - July 9, 2020
General Updates:
- The BAER Assessments are in the final stages for each resource. They will become available to those who request them as they are completed.
- Michael Martinez will be assuming the BAER Team Leader position as the forest carries our BAER implementation efforts.
Resource Updates:
Water and Watersheds (Kelly Mott Lacroix and Alex Makic)
Soils (Robert Ballard and David Watson)
Invasive Species (Ryan Nicholas)
Recreation (Kelly Finley and Devin Quintana)
Wildlife (Kelly Kessler)
Cultural Resources (Clint Dalton and Steve Germick)
Working on the Mt. Ord road to ensure administrative access; Installation of a handful of gates and numerous signs throughout the Bush Fire burn scar; and Specific implementation items are being submitted for leadership review and ultimately for a funding request.
USGS Post Fire Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Map Bush Fire
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Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. The USGS conducted a post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment for the Bush Fire using geospatial data related to basin morphometry, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may occur in response to a design storm.
The map below displays estimates of the likelihood of debris flow, potential volume debris flow, and combined relative debris flow hazard. Predictions may be viewed interactively on the USGS Landslide Hazards Program site at: https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/detail.php?objectid=282.
The Bush Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team (BAER) is wrapping up resource assessments and will begin to recommend treatments within the fire scar.
Key Elements of the BAER Assessment
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Key Elements of the BAER Assessment
Forest Service BAER assessment teams are established by Forest Supervisors before wildfires are fully contained. The teams coordinate and work with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS), National Weather Service (NWS), local counties, State Department of Transportation, and other federal, state, and local agencies to strategically assess potential post-fire impacts to the watersheds burned from wildland fires.
- The BAER assessment teams are evaluating watershed conditions to determine the level of potential risks to human life, safety, property, critical natural and cultural-heritage resources, and determine if there are appropriate and effective emergency stabilization measures that can be implemented on federal lands in a timely manner to reduce unacceptable risks from potential flooding and debris flow threats.
- The BAER assessment team conducts field surveys and uses science-based models to rapidly evaluate and assess the burned area.
- BAER assessment teams are staffed by specially trained professionals that may include: hydrologists, soil scientists, engineers, geologists, biologists, botanists, archeologists, geographic information system mapping specialists, recreation and trails specialists, and others who evaluate the burned area and prescribe emergency response actions to protect the land quickly and effectively.
- BAER assessments usually begin before a wildfire has been fully contained.
- The BAER assessment team generates a “Soil Burn Severity” map by using satellite imagery which is then validated and adjusted by BAER team field surveys to assess watershed conditions and watershed response to the wildfire. The map identifies areas of soil burn severity by categories of low/unburned, moderate, and high which corresponds to a projected increase in watershed response.
- The BAER team presents these findings and treatment recommendations to the Forest Supervisor in an assessment report that identifies immediate and emergency stabilization actions needed to address potential post-fire risks to human life and safety, property, cultural-heritage and critical natural resources on National Forest System lands.
- The BAER report describes watershed pre- and post-fire response information, areas of concern for human life, safety and property, and recommended short-term emergency stabilization actions for federal lands that burned.
- In most cases, only a portion of the burned area is actually treated.
- If the BAER assessment team determines there may be potential emergency situations, the short-term goal is to have flood and erosion control protection measures completed before the first large, damaging rain events occur.
- Timely implementation is critical if BAER emergency response actions are to be effective.
- The BAER assessment team coordinates with other federal and local agencies, and counties that assist private landowners in preparing for increased run-off and potential flooding.
- Federal assistance to private landowners regarding post-fire potential impacts is the primary responsibility of the NRCS through the Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) program (www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/programs/landscape/ewpp/).
- NRCS in coordination with additional state, local and federal agencies conduct damage survey reports for the private land adjacent to and downstream from the burned areas. NRCS uses these reports, along with the BAER team’s assessment report, to develop recommended emergency measures for businesses and private home and landowners to reduce the impacts to their property from potential increased water and debris flows.
Bush Fire BAER Team up and running
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The Bush Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team (BAER) is fully operational and has begun assessing damage in the burn area. There are 3 phases of recovery following wildfires on federal land:
- Fire Suppression Repair
- Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response
- Long-Term Recovery and Restoration
A BAER assessment team conducts field surveys and uses remote sensing and science-based models to rapidly evaluate and assess the burned area and prescribe emergency stabilization measures. The team generates a “Soil Burn Severity” map by using satellite imagery which is then validated and adjusted by BAER team field surveys to assess soil erosion, watershed conditions and model potential watershed response from the wildfire. The map identifies areas of soil burn severity by categories of very low/unburned, low, moderate, and high which may correspond to a projected increase in watershed response. The higher the burn severity, the less the soil will be able to absorb water when it rains. Without absorption, there will be increased run-off with the potential of flooding.
The Bush Fire BAER Team is currently using the attached Soil Burn Severity map to begin modeling the areas that will be most impacted. With this data, the team will recommend treatments in areas affected and begin the process of completing those treatments.

BAER Cooperators Meeting Summary July 6 2020
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Cooperators Meeting Summary - July 6, 2020
Overall BAER Updates:
- The inciweb page (listed below) has been updated with all the materials we are able to share up to this point. It will continuously be updated throughout the process. It will also include information about future BAER efforts that may occur this season.
- Many BAER Team members are beginning the analysis for the Central Fire burn scar while others are wrapping up the results of the Bush Fire
Resource Updates:
Water and Watersheds (Kelly Mott Lacroix/Alex Makic) - All pre-post fire modeling has been completed. Working with specialists over the next week to discuss risks to resources. Have been coordinating with NOAA on rainfall thresholds and SRP on installation of water quality monitoring equipment. Have received debris flow hazard data from USGS. Soils (Robert Ballard/David Watson) - Soil erosion modeling has been completed. Post fire erosion and sedimentation rates are predicted using both WEPP and ERMIT erosion models. We will be focusing on areas where predicted erosion rates exceed the soil loss tolerance value for the soil type. Invasive Species (Ryan Nicholas) - An assessment and report documenting actions to reduce unacceptable risk as a result of invasive plants in the Bush Fire burn scar has been completed. These actions include detection surveys, and, if warranted, rapid response treatments to reduce the risk posed by invasive plants during the first year following containment of the fire. Invasive species evaluated include fountain grass, buffelgrass, stinknet, Malta star thistle, wild oats, red brome, and others. Recreation (Kelly Finley/Devin Quintana) - An assessment and report for recreation has been drafted and is waiting on the hydrology models to update and finalize. Wildlife (Kelly Kessler) - Still working on the wildlife report and is waiting on the hydrology models for the bulk of the analysis. Cultural Resources (Clint Dalton/Steve Germick) - Resources are being evaluated and a list of locations have been sent to have water models run evaluating to see what potential impacts might be. Engineering (Michelle Tom/Terrin Lane) – An engineering assessment of Mt. Ord Road (FSR 626) was conducted to determine measures that can be taken to prevent road damage during future storm events. Maintaining access to this road is critical as it accesses the repeater, which is important for protecting human life and safety. A report of our assessment will be submitted to address recommended treatments and associated cost estimates. Engineering Values at Risk (VARs) have been submitted. Additionally, we will be looking at potential treatments outside the right of way utilizing recommendations provided by the Soils and Watershed Reports. The central district is moving forward on vegetation clearing in several locations along SR87 within the right of way. ADOT environmental has been involved throughout this process providing assistance as needed. A meeting has been setup for Wednesday with Steve Olmstead and USGS to discuss any additional help they might be able to provide ADOT on analysis of individual culverts.
BAER Limitations
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Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Limitations
While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires result in damage that requires special efforts to reduce impacts afterwards. Loss of vegetation exposes soil to erosion; water run-off may increase and cause flooding, soil and rock may move downstream and damage property or fill reservoirs putting community water supplies and endangered species at-risk.
The Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on National Forest System lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for stabilization work that involves time-critical activities to be completed before the first damaging storm event to meet program objectives.
BAER Objectives:
- Determine whether imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands exist and take immediate actions, as appropriate, to manage the unacceptable risks.
- If emergency conditions are identified, mitigate significant threats to human life and safety, Forest Service property and other critical natural and cultural resource values.
- Prescribe emergency response actions to stabilize and prevent unacceptable degradation to natural and cultural resources, to minimize threats to life or property resulting from the effects of a fire, or to repair/replace/construct physical improvements necessary to prevent degradation of land or resources.
- Implement emergency response actions to help stabilize soil; control water, sediment and debris movement and potentially reduce threats to the BAER critical values identified above when an analysis shows that planned actions are likely to reduce risks substantially within the first year following containment of the fire.
- Monitor the implementation and effectiveness of emergency treatments that were applied on National Forest System lands.
BAER Interagency Coordination:
Post-fire emergency response is a shared responsibility. There are several Federal, State and local agencies that have emergency response responsibilities or authorities in the post-fire environment. The BAER team coordinates with these agencies to look at the full scope and scale of the situation to reduce the potential threats to human life and property. It is important that BAER efforts are communicated with all affected and interested cooperating agencies and organizations regarding other post-fire recovery and restoration efforts.
BAER treatments cannot prevent all of the potential flooding or soil erosion impacts, especially after a wildfire-changed landscape. It is important for the public to stay informed and prepared for potentially dramatic increased run-off events.
One of the most effective BAER strategies is interagency coordination to provide post-fire threat information to local cooperators who can assist affected businesses, homes, and landowners to prepare for rain events. For example, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has the Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) program for post-emergency assistance on private and tribal land, the National Weather Service (NWS) has responsibility for flood warning alerts, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has flood insurance and other responsibilities if the area is a Presidentially-declared emergency, Resource Conservation Districts (RCD) and counties, as well as State and local-highway and emergency services departments, Flood Control authorities, etc. It is important that landowners work directly with NRCS and other agencies to determine appropriate actions needed to protect private structures and other assets.
BAER Process:
BAER assessment teams are staffed by specially trained professionals that may include: hydrologists, soil scientists, engineers, biologists, botanists, archeologists, and others who evaluate the burned area and prescribe temporary emergency stabilization actions on National Forest System lands to protect the land quickly and effectively. BAER assessments usually begin before a wildfire has been fully contained.
A BAER assessment team conducts field surveys and uses science-based models to rapidly evaluate and assess the burned area and prescribe emergency stabilization measures. The team generates a “Soil Burn Severity” map by using satellite imagery which is then validated and adjusted by BAER team field surveys to assess watershed conditions and model potential watershed response from the wildfire. The map identifies areas of soil burn severity by categories of very low/unburned, low, moderate, and high which may correspond to a projected increase in watershed response. The higher the burn severity, the less the soil will be able to absorb water when it rains. Without absorption, there will be increased run-off with the potential of flooding.
The BAER team presents these findings in an assessment report that identifies immediate and emergency actions needed to address post-fire risks to human life and safety, property, cultural and critical natural resources. This includes early detection and rapid response (EDRR) treatments to prevent the spread of noxious weeds into native plant communities. The BAER report describes watershed pre- and post-fire watershed response information, areas of concern for life and property, and recommended short-term emergency stabilization measures for Forest Service lands that burned.
In most cases, only a portion of the burned area is actually treated. Severely burned areas steep slopes, and places where water run-off will be excessive and may impact important resources, are focus areas and described in the BAER assessment report if they affect critical values. Response action timing is essential to ensure the emergency stabilization measures are effective.
There are a variety of emergency stabilization actions that the BAER team can recommend for Forest Service land such as mulching with agricultural straw or chipped wood to protect soil productivity, increasing road drainage to keep roads and bridges from washing-out during post-fire floods, and early detection rapid response invasive plant treatments to prevent spread of weeds into native plant communities. BAER treatments are preventative in nature but cannot prevent all damage, especially debris torrents in areas that are prone to sliding and have lost critical root structure from plants.
The Cans and Cannots of BAER:
What BAER Can Do:
- Install water or erosion control devices
- Seed or mulch for erosion control or stability reasons
- Install erosion control measures at critical cultural sites
- Install temporary barriers to protect treated or recovering areas
- Install warning signs
- Replace minor safety related facilities, like burned guard rails
- Install appropriate-sized drainage features on roads, trails
- Remove critical safety hazards
- Prevent permanent loss of T&E habitat
- Monitor BAER treatments
- Implement EDRR treatments to minimize the spread of noxious weeds into native plant communities
What BAER Cannot Do:
- Prevent all flooding and debris flows
- Replant commercial forests or grass for forage
- Excavate and interpret cultural sites
- Replace burned pasture fences
- Install interpretive signs
- Replace burned buildings, bridges, corrals, etc.
- Repair roads damaged by floods after fire
- Remove all hazard trees
- Replace burned habitat
- Monitor fire effects
- Treat pre-existing noxious weeds
BAER Funding:
Special Emergency Wildfire Suppression funds are authorized for BAER activities and the amount of these expenses varies with the severity of the fire season. Some years see little BAER activity while other years are extremely busy.
Because of the emergency nature of BAER, initial requests for funding of proposed BAER treatments are supposed to be submitted by the Forest Supervisor to the Regional Office within 7 days of total containment of the fire. The Regional Forester’s approval authority for individual BAER projects is limited. Approval for BAER projects exceeding this limit is forwarded onto the Washington Office.
SPECIAL NOTE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains over the burn scars. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to take action. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: www.weather.gov/psr/.
Forest Service BAER Program Overview
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FOREST SERVICE BAER PROGRAM OVERVIEW
The Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on National Forest System lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for stabilization work that involves time-critical activities to be completed before the first damaging event to meet program objectives:
BAER Objectives:
o Determine whether imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands exist and take immediate actions, as appropriate, to manage the unacceptable risks.
o If emergency conditions are identified, mitigate significant threats to health, safety, human life, property and critical cultural and natural resources.
o Prescribe emergency response actions to stabilize and prevent unacceptable degradation to natural and cultural resources, to minimize threats to critical values resulting from the effects of a fire, or to repair/replace/construct physical improvements necessary to prevent degradation of land or resources.
o Implement emergency response actions to help stabilize soil; control water, sediment and debris movement and potentially reduce threats to the BAER critical values identified above when an analysis shows that planned actions are likely to reduce risks substantially within the first year following containment of the fire.
o Monitor the implementation and effectiveness of emergency treatments that were applied on National Forest System lands.
While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires result in damage that requires special efforts to reduce impacts afterwards. Loss of vegetation exposes soil to erosion; water run-off may increase and cause flooding, soil and rock may move downstream and damage property or fill reservoirs putting community water supplies and endangered species at-risk.
The BAER team presents these findings in an assessment report that identifies immediate and emergency actions needed to address post-fire risks to human life and safety, property, cultural and critical natural resources. This includes early detection and rapid response (EDRR) treatments to prevent the spread of noxious weeds into native plant communities. The BAER report describes watershed pre- and post-fire watershed response information, areas of concern for life and property, and recommended short-term emergency stabilization measures for Forest Service lands that burned.
In most cases, only a portion of the burned area is actually treated. Severely burned areas steep slopes, and places where water run-off will be excessive and may impact important resources, are focus areas and described in the BAER assessment report if they affect critical values. Time is critical if the emergency stabilization measures are to be effective.
A BAER assessment team conducts field surveys and uses science-based models to rapidly evaluate and assess the burned area and prescribe emergency stabilization measures. The team generates a “Soil Burn Severity” map by using satellite imagery which is then validated and adjusted by BAER team field surveys to assess watershed conditions and model potential watershed response from the wildfire. The map identifies areas of soil burn severity by categories of very low/unburned, low, moderate, and high which may correspond to a projected increase in watershed response. The higher the burn severity, the less the soil will be able to absorb water when it rains. Without absorption, there will be increased run-off with the potential of flooding.
BAER Funding:
Special Emergency Wildfire Suppression funds are authorized for BAER activities and the amount of these expenses varies with the severity of the fire season. Some years see little BAER activity while other years are extremely busy.
Because of the emergency nature of BAER, initial requests for funding of proposed BAER treatments are supposed to be submitted by the Forest Supervisor to the Regional Office within 7 days of total containment of the fire. The Regional Forester’s approval authority for individual BAER projects is limited. Approval for BAER projects exceeding this limit is to the Washington Office.
SPECIAL NOTE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains over the burn scars. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to take action. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website: www.weather.gov/psr/.