Acres: 3,500 | Containment: 0% | Total personnel: 200 | Start Date: June 9, 2022 | Cause: Under Investigation | Location: 8 miles NNE of El Rito in Rio Arriba County | Fuels: Heavy mixed conifer, ponderosa pine, brush, and grass.

Highlights: The fire has grown to 3,500 acres with no containment. There are approximately 200 ground and air resources assigned with more being ordered. Structure protection remains in place in Potrero Canyon. Fire behavior may increase with continued hot and dry conditions across the fire area today.

Resources from the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Fires were sent to support firefighting efforts on the Midnight Fire on the Carson National Forest yesterday. This fire is burning at the edge of private lands in Potrero Canyon. For emergency alerts in Rio Arriba County, sign up here: https://local.nixle.com/signup/widget/i/6807. 

Weather: Continued hot and dry weather will persist today and through the weekend bringing critical fire weather conditions on Monday. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s with a 15-40% relative humidity and a small chance of isolated thunderstorms. Winds will be out of the west-northwest today with sustained winds around 13 mph and gusts to 25 mph.

Closures and Restrictions: All National Forests in New Mexico have closures or restrictions in place due to extreme fire danger. To learn more about these closures and restrictions, visit: https://tinyurl.com/bdy5y99r. Information related to fire restrictions across public and private land can be found at: https://nmfireinfo.com/fire-restrictions/.

After Fire Flooding and Recovery Resources: After Wildfire New Mexico guide https://www.afterwildfirenm.org/.

Smoke: An interactive smoke map at fire.airnow.gov/ allows you to zoom into your area to see the latest smoke conditions.

Carson National Forest firefighters, along with agency partners, are currently working to suppress the 60-acre Midnight Fire to the north of El Rito in Rio Arriba County. It was first reported at 7:46 p.m. on Thursday, June 9. Smoke has since been visible from as far as Taos, Espanola, Los Alamos and Santa Fe.

The fire, which has no containment at this time, is burning in mixed conifer vegetation near Forest Road 172 in Potrero Canyon. There are no structures threatened or evacuations at this time. The cause is under investigation.

As of Friday afternoon, approximately 200 people are assigned to suppression efforts on the ground and in the air.

Residents and visitors with questions can call 505-356-2636.

NWS Albuquerque NM – Weekly Weather Briefing Dashboard

LINK TO DASHBOARD:

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=30c322f65d99425095089415dd739104

National Weather Service (NWS)—Albuquerque, NM

Resources

·       NWS Albuquerque Webpage: www.weather.gov/abq

·       NWS Albuquerque Winter Weather: https://www.weather.gov/abq/winter

·       Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov

·       Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location):  http://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=abq&TypeDefault=graphical

·       NWS ABQ Decision Support Dashboard: ArcGIS Online Dashboard 

NOAA National Weather Service-Albuquerque Office:

Thunderstorm Forecast for NM Burn Scars starting July 10 through July 14

Albuquerque, NM (weather.gov)

This table below indicates the probability for thunderstorms over New Mexico wildfire burn areas. Storm motion and atmospheric moisture content are also listed as these factors can have considerable influence on the risk for burn scar flash flooding. Storm motion is the direction that storms will move toward. This product is experimental and for planning purposes only.

Go to the Photos Tab on this InciWeb Page for a close-up image of the NWS table below. 

For the most up-to-date NWS forecast for NM “burn scar storms” go to:

Albuquerque, NM (weather.gov) and click on the “Burn Scar Storms” header on the right side of the page under NWS Albuquerque. 

SE HA COMPLETADO LA EVALUACIÓN USGS DEL PELIGRO POR ESCOMBROS DESPUÉS DEL INCENDIO BLACK

MENSAJE DE SEGURIDAD DE BAER: Toda persona cerca y en los niveles inferiores de las zonas quemadas debe permanecer alerta y manterse actualizada sobre las condiciones meteorológicas que podrían ocacionar lluvias fuertes y un aumento en los escurrimientos de agua. Las inundaciones repentinas pueden ocurrir rápido durante las lluvias fuertes, así que esté preparado para actuar. Puede encontrar notificaciones meteorológicas y de emergencia actualizadas en la página web del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología:  www.weather.gov/abq/.

Desde el principio el equipo de Respuesta de Emergencia sobre Áreas Quemadas (BAER, en inglés) del Servicio Forestal (USFS) del USDA coordinó con el personal del Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos (USGS) en su evaluación del área quemada de Black para evaluar de manera estratégica los posibles impactos posteriores al incendio en las cuencas hidrográficas y la respuesta prevista del flujo de escombros durante los eventos dañinos de tormentas.

Los incendios forestales pueden tener un gran efecto en la respuesta hidrológica de una cuenca hidrográfica a tal punto que incluso las tormentas de lluvia modestas pueden generar inundaciones repentinas peligrosas y flujos de escombros. El USGS lleva a cabo evaluaciones del peligro de flujo de escombros posteriores para incendios seleccionados del oeste y suroeste. Se usan datos geoespaciales relacionados con la morfometría de la cuenca, la gravedad de las quemaduras, las propiedades del suelo y las características de la lluvia para estimar la probabilidad y el volumen de los flujos de escombros que pueden ocurrir en respuesta a una tormenta de diseño.

Los modelos USGS calculan la probabilidad y el volumen de los flujos de escombros que una tormenta puede producir en un área recién quemada, al usar un modelo con características relacionadas con la forma de la cuenca, la gravedad de las quemaduras, las propiedades del suelo y la lluvia.

El USGS usó el mapa de la severidad de la quemadura del suelo (SBS) del equipo BAER para modelar los posibles peligros de flujo de escombros dentro del área quemada. Los datos estiman la probabilidad del flujo de escombros, el volumen, el peligro combinado y los umbrales de lluvia y se presentan en el mapa de flujo de escombros (a continuación). La métrica combinada de peligro relativo es una combinación de la probabilidad de flujo de escombros (en %) y el posible volumen de flujo de escombros (en m3 o metros cúbicos).

Uno de los mapas que el USGS desarrolló representa la probabilidad de una causa de peligros de flujo de escombros y estimaciones de la magnitud del flujo en lugares donde se inician los flujos de escombros. Los modelos no predicen los impactos las aguas abajo, las posibles rutas del flujo de escombros o la extensión espacial del flujo de escombros ni la inundación por inundación.  Los otros dos mapas muestran los volúmenes y la probabilidad estimada de los flujos de escombros.

Esta información es de mucha importancia para que nos mantengamos al tanto de nuestra seguridad en las áreas quemadas, especialmente donde puede haber un mayor riesgo de erosión de las laderas, la entrega de sedimentos de inundación a los arroyos y una mayor probabilidad de flujos de escombros, todos los cuales son posibles riesgos para la vida humana, la seguridad y la propiedad.

Para ver los mapas de evaluación de peligros de flujo de escombros del USGS para el incendio Black, vaya a: https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/detail.php?objectid=420.

Nota: Haga clic en el icono interactivo de capas de mapa en la parte superior derecha del área del mapa para activar seis resultados diferentes de la vista del mapa de evaluación.

Para obtener información sobre qué hacer si vive en un área recientemente quemada donde existe la posibilidad de flujos de escombros y hay una tormenta de lluvia, antes, durante y después, entonces descargue la Guía de flujo de escombros e inundaciones repentinas posteriores a incendios forestales del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (PDF 7.2 MB).

Para obtener información adicional sobre la evaluación de emergencia del USGS de los peligros de flujo de escombros posteriores a un incendio, visite: Evaluación de emergencia de los peligros de flujo de escombros posteriores al incendio (usgs.gov).

BLACK POST-FIRE

USGS DEBRIS-FLOW HAZARDS ASSESSMENT COMPLETED

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events. Be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website:  www.weather.gov/abq/.

The USDA Forest Service (USFS) Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) assessment team coordinated early with US Geological Survey (USGS) staff during its evaluation of the Black burned area to strategically assess potential post-fire impacts to the watersheds and predicted debris-flow response during damaging storm events.

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. The USGS conducts post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select western and southwestern fires. They use geospatial data related to basin morphometry, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may occur in response to a design storm.

USGS models estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced by a storm in a recently burned area, using a model with characteristics related to basin shape, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall.

USGS utilized the Black Post-Fire BAER team’s soil burn severity (SBS) map to model potential debris flow hazards within the burned area. The data estimates debris-flow likelihood, volume, combined hazard, and rainfall thresholds and are presented in the debris flow map (see below). The combined relative hazard metric is a combination of the likelihood of debris flow (in %) and potential volume of debris flow (in m3 or cubic meters).

One of the maps that USGS developed depicts the likelihood of debris-flow hazard generation and estimates of flow magnitude in locations where debris flows initiate. The models do not predict downstream impacts, potential debris flow runout paths, or the spatial extent of debris-flow or flood inundation. The other two maps show estimated intensity volumes of debris flows, and the estimated probability/likelihood of debris flows.

This information is extremely important to inform our safety awareness of the burned areas, especially where there may be an increased risk of hillslope erosion, flooding sediment delivery to streams, and a higher probability of debris flows – all of which are potential risks to human life, safety, and property.

To access the USGS debris-flow hazards assessment maps for the Black Fire, go to: https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/detail.php?objectid=420.

Note: Click on the map layers interactive icon at the top right side of the map area to toggle on six different assessment map view results.

For information on what to do if you live in a recently burned area where debris flows are possible, and there is a rainstorm - before, during, and after – download the National Weather Service Post Wildfire Flash Flood and Debris Flow Guide (PDF 7.2 MB).

For additional information about the USGS emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards, go to: Emergency Assessment of Post-Fire Debris-Flow Hazards (usgs.gov).

BAER TEAM RELEASES UPDATED SOIL BURN SEVERITY MAP FOR BLACK FIRE

The Gila National Forest (NF) BAER team has released the final soil burn severity (SBS) map for the Black Fire’s burned area using post-fire satellite imagery from June 6 and June 15, 2022. The team’s updated SBS map analyzes 327,263 acres of the Caballo, Mimbres, and Upper Gila, watersheds. The map and the data display soil burn severity (SBS) categories of unburned/very low, low, moderate and high.

Approximately 75% of these updated acres are either unburned/very low or low SBS, while 17% are moderate SBS and 6% are high SBS. The updated SBS map also shows 2% (6,691 acres) of area at the southern end of the fire as having no data based on the June 22, Black Fire perimeter where post-fire satellite imagery was not available for fire growth that occurred after June 15 due to cloud cover.

Changes in soil cover, water repellency, and soil physical/biological conditions guide the interpretations to determine the severity burn level of the soil. Water repellency can occur naturally in soil and may change as a function of fire. Fire can increase the strength and thickness (or depth) of water-repellent layers in soil, considerably affecting post-fire water runoff and possibly extending time for recovery of the burned area.

For addition information about understanding SBS, see: Post-Fire Effects: Understanding Soil Burn Severity - InciWeb the Incident Information System (nwcg.gov).

The updated post-fire SBS map has been posted on the “Black Post-Fire BAER” InciWeb site: Black Post-Fire BAER Maps - InciWeb the Incident Information System (nwcg.gov).
 
UNDER RELATED INFORMATION BELOW: See Link for ENGLISH and SPANISH BAER Updates. 

FLOOD SAFETY VIDEO: AFTER THE FLAMES—THE RISK REMAINS

The State of New Mexico

US Department of Homeland Security

FEMA

June 24, 2022
DR-4652- NM PSA 0014

FEMA News Desk: 940-898-5454

FEMA-R6-NewsDesk@fema.dhs.gov

PSA

Prepare for Possible Flash Flooding

Wildfires Leave Behind a lot of Ash—Ash Happens!

Wildfires are a natural part of many ecosystems, but wildfires can impact air quality, they can also affect the quantity and quality of water.

During active burning, ash and contaminants associated with ash settle on streams, lakes and water reservoirs. Vegetation that holds soil in place and retains water is burned away. In the aftermath of a large wildfire, rainstorms flush vast quantities of ash, sediment, nutrients and contaminants into streams, rivers, and downstream reservoirs. The absence of vegetation in the watershed can create increased water, ash, sediment, and debris flow conditions.

After the first few major rainstorm events following a wildfire, downstream residents and recreational visitors may see the “ash” laden sediment flow “flush” since water runoff from burned areas contains ash and is conducive to increased erosion of the soil—also producing debris or sediment flows.

Recreating visitors and downstream residents are reminded to take notice of local weather alerts and warnings during the next few years as these recent burn areas recover to their pre-fire watershed conditions.

BAER SAFETY MESSAGE: Everyone near and downstream from the burned areas should remain alert and stay updated on weather conditions that may result in heavy rains and increased water runoff. Flash flooding may occur quickly during heavy rain events-be prepared to act. Current weather and emergency notifications can be found at the National Weather Service website:  www.weather.gov/abq/.

Ash and Debris Flow—US Geological Survey Photo 

NOTE: Posted below in Related Information are PDF documents of this article in ENGLISH and in SPANISH.