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Fire Behavior Analysts assigned to the Big Knife Fire utilized a weather analysis program that uses historical and current weather data to assess the fire outlook. Rain yesterday and forecast for today will be a fire season-slowing event, but it will not be fire season-ending event. A fire season-ending event consists of a combination of weather events followed by a persistent combination of environmental factors to mark the end of fire season. Weather events can include rain or snow, lower temperatures, higher relative humidity, and cloud cover. Environmental factors such as lower sun angles and shorter day lengths reduce the active fire burning period. By the middle of September, there is a 50% chance of a fire season-ending event happening. By the last week of October this chance increases to 90%. The weather is forecasted to get warmer and drier by Friday providing the opportunity for the fuels to dry out and support fire growth again. Fuel drying is expected to take longer than the rain event that wet the Big Knife Fire the first week of August. The crews on the fire will be patrolling and monitoring the fire perimeter today. Tonight will be the last night shift.

The Big Knife Fire is currently 1.25 miles north of the Rattlesnake Wilderness Boundary (Lolo National Forest) with no significant growth towards the Lolo National Forest in the last week. Smoke from the fire may impact the Snowbowl area, however the Lolo National Forest does not have any forest closures in place on the Missoula Ranger District.

CLOSURES AND SPECIAL MESSAGES: Several areas near the base of the mountains west of the Big Knife Fire remain in PRE-EVACUATION WARNING by order of the Lake County Sheriff. See the map for those locations in yellow (Jocko, Canal, Francis). The Tribal Primitive Area, Belmore Slough and Burnt Cabin Roads are closed.

A PRE-EVACUATION WARNING means you may remain in your home. Individuals in this status should not bring back evacuated livestock until this status is lifted.

A temporary flight restriction (TFR) is in effect around the fire area. Do not fly unmanned aircraft (drones) near the fire areas.

Weather: More rain is predicted tonight through Wednesday morning. Warming and drying starts on Thursday.

FIRE RESTRICTIONS: Stage 2 fire restrictions are in place across the Flathead Indian Reservation. No campfires are allowed, no smoking outside of vehicles, no operating combustible engines from 1 p.m. to 1 a.m., no operating vehicles off designated roads and trails. Stage 1 fire restrictions are in place in Granite County. The following are prohibited until rescinded: Building, maintaining, attending, or using a fire or campfire except within a developed recreation site or improved site. Smoking, except within an enclosed vehicle or building, a developed recreation site or while stopped in an area at least three feet in diameter that is barren or cleared of all flammable materials. Visit  https://www.mtfireinfo.org/ for more fire restriction information across Montana.